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2024 General Election

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The Trump Indictments

How will the Trump indictments factor into voters' preferences in the 2024 election? Right now, the data suggest a close race, with few historical precedents to guide our understanding of what might happen.

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Presidential Job Approval and Biden's Re-Election Chances in Pennsylvania

We compare President Biden's ratings with the ratings of other first-term governors and presidents in Pennsylvania to see what they tell us about his chances of carrying the state in 2024.

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Demographic, Attitudinal, and Electoral Changes in Pennsylvania Partisans Since 2000

We review some long-term trends in the partisan alignment of the state's voters, looking at demographic and attitudinal sorting, geographic realignment, and two issues--gun control and abortion. What does this mean for the state's electoral politics?

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Looking Ahead to the 2024 U.S. Senate Race

What can the April F&M poll tell us about the relative appeal of the two Republicans who have discussed running in Pennsylvania? We take a look at Senator Casey's chances against both Doug Mastriano and David McCormick.