Electoral Context
Thinking About Likely Voters...
There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.
Polling the Presidential Race: Does Methodology Matter?
We explore how various methodologies may affect poll results, looking particularly at how different approaches to sampling and data collection seem to produce slightly different descriptions of the 2024 presidential race.
Who are the Undecided Voters? Are There Really Only 3%?
Close analysis of the data suggests there are more undecided voters out there than many pollsters think, and persuadable voters are defined along ideological and partisan lines.
Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: August 2024
This month's poll shows Pennsylvania voters' opinions on the 2024 presidential and U.S. Senate races, cell phones in schools, voting reform, and the legal definition of marriage.
2024 Primary Recap: Protest Votes and Other Surprises
An analysis of the unexpected outcomes in the 2024 Pennsylvania primary election. We look at how the protest vote, turnout, and geography influenced the results, and what this might mean for the upcoming general election.
Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: April 2024
See where the 2024 presidential race stands in Pennsylvania, and explore voters' positions on marijuana legalization, voting reforms, and democracy, along with their ratings of President Biden, Governor Shapiro, and Senator Casey.
Will Population Changes in Pennsylvania Since 2020 Help Republicans?
Uneven patterns of migration between counties could make the 2024 presidential campaign even more closely contested than it was in 2020.