Polling Methodology
2024 Pennsylvania Polling: Focusing on Performance in the Horse Race isn’t Good Enough
We explore how oversimplified postmortem polling assessments can be more harmful than helpful.
Thinking About Likely Voters...
There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.
Polling the Presidential Race: Does Methodology Matter?
We explore how various methodologies may affect poll results, looking particularly at how different approaches to sampling and data collection seem to produce slightly different descriptions of the 2024 presidential race.
Untangling and Explaining Voter Preferences in Our 2022 Midterm Surveys
We review the 2022 F&M polls about the Pennsylvania midterm elections, discuss how the choices we made affected how we thought about the races, and consider the lessons we will remember for future surveys.
Polling in the 2022 Pennsylvania Midterms
Analysis of the 2022 Pennsylvania midterm election polls, with an eye to understanding political poll performance and polling error.
Undecided Voters
Discussion of how differently-worded questions in recent polls have led to different results regarding how many undecided voters there are in the 2022 election cycle.
Primary Polling in 2022
What are the limitations of primary election polling? We review political polls in the U.S. since 2000 to learn what polls can, and can't, tell us.