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Voter Behavior

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More of the Same: What the 2024 Election Results Tell us about Pennsylvania

Democrats experienced a deep loss in Pennsylvania in 2024. But does this mean the state--and the nation--are experiencing permanent political change? We analyze new data about voter behavior and the electoral landscape to answer this question.

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Did Trump Reverse the Voter Registration Tide or Ride It?

Pennsylvania's partisan voter registration has tightened over the last decade. But did Trump really drive the changes? And do they represent a durable realignment that advantages Republicans?

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Thinking About Likely Voters...

There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.

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2024 Primary Recap: Protest Votes and Other Surprises

An analysis of the unexpected outcomes in the 2024 Pennsylvania primary election. We look at how the protest vote, turnout, and geography influenced the results, and what this might mean for the upcoming general election.

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Voters' Emotions and the 2024 Presidential Election

How will emotions--both positive and negative--about Biden and Trump affect the 2024 presidential election?

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The Upcoming Presidential Election: Looking Back to Look Ahead

What can the 2023 F&M polls tell us about what issues will loom large in the 2024 presidential election, and what voters think about the candidates?

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The 2023 Municipal Election: Abortion Rights Likely Gave Democrats an Advantage

Turnout in Pennsylvania on November 7 was higher than expected, and Democrats won a race they had lost in 2021. We dig into the data to understand why.

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Who is Going to Vote Next Week?

We look at the October 2023 poll to find out what it can tell us about potential voter turnout in the upcoming municipal election, including which party is favored.

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The Trump Indictments

How will the Trump indictments factor into voters' preferences in the 2024 election? Right now, the data suggest a close race, with few historical precedents to guide our understanding of what might happen.

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Nationalization in Pennsylvania's 2022 Midterm Races

This month's newsletter examines split-district voting in Pennsylvania state house elections to see how much nationalization exists, and how this voter behavior has changed over time.