Voter Behavior
Thinking About Likely Voters...
There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.
2024 Primary Recap: Protest Votes and Other Surprises
An analysis of the unexpected outcomes in the 2024 Pennsylvania primary election. We look at how the protest vote, turnout, and geography influenced the results, and what this might mean for the upcoming general election.
The 2023 Municipal Election: Abortion Rights Likely Gave Democrats an Advantage
Turnout in Pennsylvania on November 7 was higher than expected, and Democrats won a race they had lost in 2021. We dig into the data to understand why.
Who is Going to Vote Next Week?
We look at the October 2023 poll to find out what it can tell us about potential voter turnout in the upcoming municipal election, including which party is favored.
Nationalization in Pennsylvania's 2022 Midterm Races
This month's newsletter examines split-district voting in Pennsylvania state house elections to see how much nationalization exists, and how this voter behavior has changed over time.
Untangling and Explaining Voter Preferences in Our 2022 Midterm Surveys
We review the 2022 F&M polls about the Pennsylvania midterm elections, discuss how the choices we made affected how we thought about the races, and consider the lessons we will remember for future surveys.
Election Postmortem
What happened in the 2022 midterm elections in Pennsylvania and across the country? Did issues like the economy and abortion rights affect the outcome? How analysis of the F&M midterm polls can help in understanding the unexpected results.