Voter Turnout
Thinking About Likely Voters...
There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.
The 2023 Municipal Election: Abortion Rights Likely Gave Democrats an Advantage
Turnout in Pennsylvania on November 7 was higher than expected, and Democrats won a race they had lost in 2021. We dig into the data to understand why.
Who is Going to Vote Next Week?
We look at the October 2023 poll to find out what it can tell us about potential voter turnout in the upcoming municipal election, including which party is favored.
2022 Primary Recap: Turnout, Geography, and Issues
In the 2022 Pennsylvania primary elections, how did geography affect support for the candidates? What about voter turnout? And what did the polls say about the importance of issues such as the economy, abortion rights, and gun control?
Primary Polling in 2022
What are the limitations of primary election polling? We review political polls in the U.S. since 2000 to learn what polls can, and can't, tell us.
The 2022 Primary Elections: Political Catnip
What can the results of past years' high profile primary contests tell us about how the 2022 midterm elections may play out?